Bellwork: We live in the South – using your laptops – can be group work – Which Southern states did Harris win in 2024? Which did Trump win? 2020, Biden won and Trump won?
Democratic Presidential Performance in Southern States (1960-2024)
The US Census Bureau defines the American South as a collection of 16 states and DC.
Southern States by Electoral Weight (Census Definition)
16 states + DC = 196 + 3 = 199 electoral votes
The South is the most populous region of the country (132.7 million people). It’s hard to win the presidency while losing the South entirely.
| State | Electoral Votes |
|---|---|
| Texas | 40 |
| Florida | 30 |
| Georgia | 16 |
| North Carolina | 16 |
| Virginia | 13 |
| Tennessee | 11 |
| Maryland | 10 |
| Alabama | 9 |
| South Carolina | 9 |
| Louisiana | 8 |
| Kentucky | 8 |
| Oklahoma | 7 |
| Arkansas | 6 |
| Mississippi | 6 |
| West Virginia | 4 |
| Delaware | 3 |
| DC | 3* |
*DC is not currently a state but has 3 electoral votes
GC.18 Explain the Electoral College system, and compare and contrast arguments for and against it. G, H, P
What am I learning today?
How our Electoral College operates
Why am I learning this?
The Electoral College determines our president
How will I know I learned this?
When you understand how the Electoral College operates
And every Democrat who won a Presidential Election in the last 60 years won 4 of more of these states.
Pattern: Every Democrat who WON the presidency won 4 or more Southern states. Every Democrat who LOST won 3 or fewer.
| Year | Candidate | Southern States Won | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Harris | 1 | Lost |
| 2020 | Biden | 5 | Won |
| 2016 | H. Clinton | 3 | Lost |
| 2012 | Obama | 4 | Won |
| 2008 | Obama | 5 | Won |
| 2004 | Kerry | 2 | Lost |
| 2000 | Gore | 2 | Lost |
| 1996 | B. Clinton | 8 | Won |
| 1992 | B. Clinton | 8 | Won |
| 1988 | Dukakis | 1 | Lost |
| 1984 | Mondale | 0 | Lost |
| 1980 | Carter | 3 | Lost |
| 1976 | Carter | 14 | Won |
| 1972 | McGovern | 0 | Lost |
| 1968 | Humphrey | 3 | Lost |
| 1964 | Johnson | 11 | Won |
| 1960 | Kennedy | 9 | Won |
199 combined electoral votes from the 16 states and 3 from DC.”It’s hard to ignore/win without the entire region and still get to 270. The most populous region of the country. 132.7 million people.
Faithless Electors
Someone has a plan
National Popular Vote
Voter Turnout
2028 Presidential Election Interactive Map
2024:
GC.18 Explain the Electoral College system, and compare and contrast arguments for and against it. G, H, P
What am I learning today?
How our Electoral College operates
Why am I learning this?
The Electoral College determines our president
How will I know I learned this?
When you understand how the Electoral College operates
REFLECTION QUESTIONS
1. Why is the South so important in presidential elections?
________________________________________________________________
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2. Does the Electoral College seem fair? Why or why not?
________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________
3. What would change with a national popular vote?
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KEY TAKEAWAYS
- The Electoral College is based on ____________________, not direct popular vote.
- Regional voting patterns, especially the __________, shape candidate strategy.
- Valid arguments exist for both __________ and __________ the system.
